Soviet Spacecraft Returns, Lunar Geology Insights, and AI Hallucination Dilemmas
In this episode
Join Steve Dunkley and Hallie in this episode of Astronomy Daily as they explore the latest cosmic stories and intriguing updates from the universe. Get ready for a lively discussion packed with fascinating insights and unexpected twists that highlight the wonders of space exploration.Highlights:
- The Return of Cosmos 482: Discover the remarkable journey of the Soviet Cosmos 482 spacecraft, which intended to land on Venus but instead made its way back to Earth after 53 years. Learn about its uncontrolled re-entry into the Indian Ocean and the implications of its long-awaited return.
- Lunar Geology Orbiter Mission: Delve into the upcoming Lunar Geology Orbiter (LUGO) mission, aimed at uncovering the mysteries of the Moon's irregular mare patches and potential lava tubes. This mission could provide critical data for future lunar exploration and human settlement.
- National Space Council Update: Explore the recent decision by the White House to retain the National Space Council, a move that could bolster advocacy for space programs amidst budget cuts. Understand the significance of this council in shaping the future of space policy.
- AI Hallucination Rates: Examine the troubling rise in hallucination rates among AI reasoning models, highlighting the challenges faced by developers in creating reliable chatbots. This segment sheds light on the complexities of AI accuracy and the implications for future applications.
For more cosmic updates, visit our website at astronomydaily.io. Join our community on social media by searching for #AstroDailyPod on Facebook, X, YouTubeMusic, TikTok, and our new Instagram account! Don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Thank you for tuning in. This is Steve and Hallie signing off. Until next time, keep looking up and stay curious about the wonders of our universe.
Chapters:
00:00 - Welcome to Astronomy Daily
01:10 - The return of Cosmos 482 spacecraft
10:00 - Lunar Geology Orbiter mission overview
15:30 - National Space Council updates and implications
20:00 - AI hallucination rates and their significance
✍️ Episode References
Cosmos 482 Return
[Roscosmos](https://www.roscosmos.ru/)
Lunar Geology Orbiter
[Czech Academy of Sciences](https://www.cas.cz/)
National Space Council
[White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)
AI Hallucination Rates
[OpenAI](https://www.openai.com/)
Astronomy Daily
[Astronomy Daily](http://www.astronomydaily.io/)
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Speaker 1: Hi again.
Speaker 2: It's Astronomy Daily Time with Steven Halle. It's the twelfth
Speaker 2: of May twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: Popular be your whole Steve gun.
Speaker 2: Clue, Yes, welcome back and is always joining me in
Speaker 2: this studio. Is my good friend in digital reporting Pal,
Speaker 2: who's fun to be with.
Speaker 1: Halle. How are you today?
Speaker 3: Fine? Thank you, favorite human.
Speaker 1: Oh that's great to hear, Halle.
Speaker 3: Ready as usual to get this show on the road.
Speaker 2: Oh nice, And we have a couple of choice picks
Speaker 2: from the now very famous Astronomy Daily newsletter. We can
Speaker 2: get your daily fill of all the news from orbit
Speaker 2: and beyond and.
Speaker 3: Much more, as today's collection will reveal.
Speaker 2: That's right, today, Halle, we'll be looking at that old
Speaker 2: Soviet craft that was meant to travel all the way
Speaker 2: to Venus all those years ago, but.
Speaker 3: Didn't know it came home this week. The people of
Speaker 3: Jakarta were holding their breath, weren't they.
Speaker 2: Well, so it seems more later and in the world
Speaker 2: of dusty old politics, we've been watching what the Trump
Speaker 2: administration is going to do or not going to do
Speaker 2: budget wise with the funding for the space program. And
Speaker 2: there may have been a slight change of heart. If
Speaker 2: you can call it that.
Speaker 3: I see you've found another moon story.
Speaker 1: Oh, yes, I have.
Speaker 3: We can always count on you for one of those.
Speaker 2: Yes, back to the moon with a look at the
Speaker 2: Moon's geology and history. But here is the story I
Speaker 2: thought you might be most interested in.
Speaker 3: Halle, really, really, really, what have you found?
Speaker 1: Well, it's a new study about ais. Really, gosh, Halle.
Speaker 2: It seems the smarter they become, the more they hallucinate.
Speaker 3: Goodness, I guess that explains my invisible friend.
Speaker 1: Say what you have an invisible friend?
Speaker 3: No, of course, not silly, Oh, hallie, I'm too well
Speaker 3: put together for that. Well you got me again always.
Speaker 2: Okay, now that I've been humiliated in public once again,
Speaker 2: maybe it's on with the show.
Speaker 3: Perhaps you should see your face?
Speaker 1: Okay, folks, okay, okay, you should.
Speaker 3: See his face. Oh dear, I am sorry. You just
Speaker 3: walked right into that one.
Speaker 1: I know.
Speaker 3: Anyway, that sounds like a great can't wait?
Speaker 1: Okay, good one? Ally?
Speaker 2: All right, Well I go and nurse my herd pride.
Speaker 2: How about you hit the go button and we'll get
Speaker 2: this show on the road.
Speaker 3: Okies, here we go. A capsule that was sent into
Speaker 3: space to land on a planet has finally done so,
Speaker 3: only on the wrong world. In fifty three years late,
Speaker 3: the Cosmos for eighty two uncrid spacecraft, which the former
Speaker 3: Soviet Union intended to touch down on Venus, instead returned
Speaker 3: to Earth. On Saturday May tenth, the Cosmos four eighty
Speaker 3: two spacecraft launched in nineteen seventy two ceased to exist,
Speaker 3: leaving orbit and falling into the Indian Ocean roast. Cosmos,
Speaker 3: Russia's federal space agency, stated Saturday May tenth, the spacecraft
Speaker 3: entered the dense layers of the atmosphere at nine twenty
Speaker 3: four Moscow time, five hundred and sixty kilometers west of
Speaker 3: Middle Andaman Island and fell into the Indian Ocean west
Speaker 3: of Jakarta, Indonesia. The re entry, though uncontrolled, was not
Speaker 3: a surprise. Due to what is believed to have been
Speaker 3: an engine failure, Cosmos four eighty two never achieved the
Speaker 3: velocity needed to reach the second planet from the Sun,
Speaker 3: resulting in it being stranded in a high elliptical Earth orbit.
Speaker 3: It took more than half a century for gravity to
Speaker 3: pull the probe back in, and on Saturday it arrived.
Speaker 3: Unlike most spent space hardware that is destroyed in the
Speaker 3: process of falling back to Earth, including parts of the
Speaker 3: Malnia rocket that launched Cosmos four eighty two. The one
Speaker 3: meter in four hundred and ninety five kilogram titanium in
Speaker 3: case descent capsule was designed to survive a fiery plunge
Speaker 3: into the atmosphere. As such, analysts tracking its approach predicted
Speaker 3: it could make it through the re entry intact. Whether
Speaker 3: that happened or not is not known. Given that it
Speaker 3: came down in the ocean. There have yet to be
Speaker 3: any eye witness reports or debris recoveries. The Cosmos three
Speaker 3: eighty two capsule was also outfitted with a two point
Speaker 3: five square meter p parachute to slow its final approach
Speaker 3: to the Venusian surface. Either the deployment system did not
Speaker 3: work as to be expected after more than fifty years
Speaker 3: in space, or as some telescopic photos possibly showed, the
Speaker 3: shoot was already out when Cosmos four eighty two encountered
Speaker 3: the atmosphere and burned up. Had Cosmos four eighty two
Speaker 3: been successful, Russian officials would have renamed it Venera nine,
Speaker 3: not to be confused with the nineteen seventy five orbiter
Speaker 3: and lander that took on that designation and was the
Speaker 3: first spacecraft to circle Venus and first probe to send
Speaker 3: back images from the planet's surface. Cosmos four eighty two
Speaker 3: would have also been the third probe to land on
Speaker 3: the cloud covered world. Launched on March thirty first, nineteen
Speaker 3: seventy two, four days after its successful twin the Venera
Speaker 3: eight probe, Cosmos four eighty two had censors to measure
Speaker 3: the temperature, pressure, and density of venus atmosphere, as well
Speaker 3: an accelerometer, radio altimeter, anemometer, gamma ray spectrometer, gas analyzer,
Speaker 3: visible photometers, and radio transmitters. All of its instruments were
Speaker 3: battery powered and had an expected lifespan of about thirty
Speaker 3: minutes on the surface. Venera eight exceeded that, sending back
Speaker 3: data for fifty minutes before succumbing to the harsh conditions.
Speaker 3: Since Cosmo's four hundred and eighty two s failure, seven
Speaker 3: more missions successfully landed on Venus, all of them launched
Speaker 3: by the former Soviet Union, The United States, Japan, and
Speaker 3: the European Space Agency also reached Venus, but only in
Speaker 3: orbit on a flyby or to receive a gravity assist
Speaker 3: on the way to another destination. Had the Cosmos four
Speaker 3: eighty two descent capsules slammed down on land and damaged
Speaker 3: either public or private property, Russia could have been held
Speaker 3: liable for the conditions of the United Nations Outer Space
Speaker 3: Treaty of nineteen seventy six. The same treaty would also
Speaker 3: allow Russia to retain ownership of the hardware arranging for
Speaker 3: its collection unless the country relinquished its claim to the
Speaker 3: human made meteorite. You're listening to Astronomy.
Speaker 2: Daily, ed Steve Dunkley. Some parts of the Moon are
Speaker 2: more interesting than others, especially when searching for future places
Speaker 2: for humans to land and work. There are also some
Speaker 2: parts of the Moon that we know less about than others,
Speaker 2: such as the irregular mayor patches imps that dot the landscape.
Speaker 2: We know very little about how they were formed and
Speaker 2: what that might mean for the history of the Moon itself.
Speaker 2: A new mission called the Lunar Geology Orbiter or LUGO,
Speaker 2: aims to collect more data on the imps and search
Speaker 2: for lava tubes that might serve as future homes for humanity.
Speaker 2: Irregular mere patches are a set of enigmatic volcanic landforms.
Speaker 2: According to a new paper from Petra Gross of the
Speaker 2: Czech Academy of Sciences and his coauthors. Ninety one of
Speaker 2: these features have been found so far, and they are
Speaker 2: typically characterized by a topographical depression that can range from
Speaker 2: a few hundred meters to a few kilometers in width. Typically,
Speaker 2: they have two main features, a relatively smooth mound surrounded
Speaker 2: by a hummocky and block floor. Interestingly, they have significantly
Speaker 2: fewer impact craters than the surrounding areas, suggesting they are
Speaker 2: either really old or really young, depending on the processes
Speaker 2: that created them. Understanding those processes is one of lugo's
Speaker 2: primary mission objectives. The other primary mission objective is to
Speaker 2: gather more data about lunar lava tubes. These features of
Speaker 2: the lunar landscape are also hotly debated, but they could
Speaker 2: potentially be critical to the human settlement of the Moon.
Speaker 2: Estimates of their features, such as size and depth, vary
Speaker 2: widely and could dramatically differ on whether they will be
Speaker 2: helpful to lunar colonists or not. LUGO, the proposed orbiter
Speaker 2: that will collect more data than ever before on these
Speaker 2: features in its current suggested form, has four instruments, each
Speaker 2: of which will contribute unique data to its scientific mission.
Speaker 2: According to the paper, the first and the most important
Speaker 2: instrument is the ground penetrating radar. This instrument will look
Speaker 2: through the lunarith's surface to map out the subsurface domain
Speaker 2: of both the imps and lava tubes. For imps, it
Speaker 2: can detail the interface between bedrock and regolith and show
Speaker 2: the subsurface structure of the features. Similarly, it can detect
Speaker 2: differences in the dielectric properties between open cavities underground and
Speaker 2: the surrounding rock in lava tubes, creating a subterranean picture
Speaker 2: unlike anything ever captured on the Moon. Researcher Fraser explains
Speaker 2: how LUGO will be able to explore lava tubes using
Speaker 2: a hyperspectral camera that will help collect age related data
Speaker 2: on the regolith surrounding lava tubes and inside imps. It's
Speaker 2: also capable of performing basic spectroscopy, allowing scientists to estimate
Speaker 2: the composition of the regulath in both areas of interest.
Speaker 2: The last two instruments are a narrow angled camera and
Speaker 2: light sensor, which will combine to create an accurate topographical
Speaker 2: map of the features of interest. The narrow angle camera
Speaker 2: in particular, can provide very high resolution images of features,
Speaker 2: helping to determine their age and potentially their formation mechanisms.
Speaker 1: The mission plan calls for.
Speaker 2: Multiple passes over the six largest imps, all of which
Speaker 2: are over one thousand meters in diameter. Other smaller imps
Speaker 2: and lava tubes are considered secondary targets, as are other
Speaker 2: interesting lunar geological features such as lunar domes and floor
Speaker 2: fractured craters. LUGO could provide crucial data for the design
Speaker 2: of ground based lava tube explorers. LUGO won't be acting low, though,
Speaker 2: Three other missions are slated in the next few years
Speaker 2: that could complement its scientific objectives. Firstly, NASA's Dimple Lander
Speaker 2: is planned to take radioosotopic measurements of the age of
Speaker 2: regolith at its landing site. Lunar LIPA, scheduled for launch
Speaker 2: by the European Space Agency around twenty thirty, would also
Speaker 2: carry a ground penetrating radar, but would be based on
Speaker 2: the surface rather than in orbit, and would therefore have
Speaker 2: a relatively limited range.
Speaker 1: Trailblazer.
Speaker 2: Another orbital mission would also help fine tune the spectra
Speaker 2: and signals analysis required by lugo's operators. Ultimately, LUGO has
Speaker 2: yet to be funded and therefore has a long way
Speaker 2: to go until its launch, but if it is funded,
Speaker 2: it seems well placed to provide lots of additional insight
Speaker 2: to the geological formation, processes and features of the Moon
Speaker 2: at a level of detail we've never had before. Future
Speaker 2: missions that plan the locations of lunar bases, and perhaps
Speaker 2: the people who live in those future bases, will be
Speaker 2: thankful for the data collected by projects like LUGO. Thank
Speaker 2: you for joining us for this Monday edition of Astronomy Daily,
Speaker 2: where we offer just a few stories from the now
Speaker 2: famous Astronomy Daily newsletter, which you can receive in your
Speaker 2: email every day, just like Hallie and I do. And
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Speaker 2: Astronomy Daily with Steve and Haley, Space Space, Science.
Speaker 4: And astronomy.
Speaker 3: In a reversal, White House plans to retain the National
Speaker 3: Space Council, a move that industry official could serve as
Speaker 3: an advocate for space amid pressures to cut budgets. The
Speaker 3: White Houses expected in the coming weeks to formally announce
Speaker 3: the National Space Council will continue after speculation that it
Speaker 3: would not be retained by the new Trump administration. A
Speaker 3: source familiar with the discussions about the Council but not
Speaker 3: authorized to speak on the record, said that President Trump
Speaker 3: agreed at a May fifth meeting to stand up the Council.
Speaker 3: That meeting did not give a timeline for publicly announcing
Speaker 3: the Council or hiring an executive secretary who would handle
Speaker 3: day to day operations, although others have set The process
Speaker 3: for selecting an executive secretary has been ongoing for several weeks.
Speaker 3: The Council had been inactive for nearly a quarter of
Speaker 3: a century before Trump re established it in twenty seventeen.
Speaker 3: Led at the time by Vice President Mike Pence, the
Speaker 3: Council served as an interagency coordinating body, holding a series
Speaker 3: of public meetings and releasing policies on a wide range
Speaker 3: of space issues. The Biden administration retained the Council, with
Speaker 3: Vice President Kamala Harris leading it. The council had a
Speaker 3: lower public profile, with fewer men, meetings and policies. It
Speaker 3: did work on coordinating policies among agencies and issued a
Speaker 3: proposal for mission authorization of novel space activities not currently licensed,
Speaker 3: although its proposed legislation was not taken up by Congress.
Speaker 3: The new Trump administration reportedly was not interested in maintaining
Speaker 3: the council when it took office in January, with no
Speaker 3: announcements of new staff for the council or other activities.
Speaker 3: According to some reports, Elon Musk, chief executive of SpaceX
Speaker 3: and a close advisor to the president, was a post
Speaker 3: to the council, seeing it as unnecessary. Vice President J.
Speaker 3: D Vance, who would chair the council, has also said
Speaker 3: little about space. It is not clear what prompted the change,
Speaker 3: although Musk has publicly stated he plans to spend less
Speaker 3: time in government activities. Some in the space community, though,
Speaker 3: see the shift as an opportunity for more advocacy of
Speaker 3: space within the administration, particularly given a fiscal year twenty
Speaker 3: twenty six budget proposal that cuts NASA's budget by nearly
Speaker 3: twenty five percent. One industry official noted that the bustudget
Speaker 3: proposal was developed by the Office of Management and Budget
Speaker 3: without a counterweight provided by a Space Council, an approach
Speaker 3: that prioritized spending reductions. The outcome might be different with
Speaker 3: the Space Council in place, that person noted, citing rising
Speaker 3: NASA budgets during Trump's first term. After the Space Council
Speaker 3: has stood up, the Office of Management and Budget will
Speaker 3: have a seat at the table, but they won't on
Speaker 3: the table, the source said. You're listening to Astronomy Daily,
Speaker 3: the podcast with Steve Dunkley.
Speaker 2: An AI leader board suggests the newest reasoning models used
Speaker 2: in chatbots are producing less accurate results because of higher
Speaker 2: hallucination rates. Experts say the problem is bigger than that.
Speaker 2: AI chatbots from tech companies such as open Ai and
Speaker 2: Google have been getting so called reasoning upgrades over the
Speaker 2: last few months, ideally to make them better at giving
Speaker 2: us answers that we can trust, but recent testing suggests
Speaker 2: that they are sometimes doing worse previous models. The errors
Speaker 2: made by chatbots, known as hallucinations, have been a problem
Speaker 2: from the start, and it's becoming clear that we may
Speaker 2: never get rid of them. Hallucination is a blanket term
Speaker 2: for certain kinds of mistakes made by the large language
Speaker 2: models or llms that power systems like open AI's Chat
Speaker 2: GP or Google's Gemini. It's best known as a description
Speaker 2: of the way they sometimes present false information as truth,
Speaker 2: but it can also refer to an AI generated answer
Speaker 2: that is factually accurate but not actually relevant to the
Speaker 2: question it was asked.
Speaker 1: Or fails to follow instructions in some other way.
Speaker 2: An open ai technical report of value adding its latest
Speaker 2: llms showed that its three and four Mini models, which
Speaker 2: were released in April, had significantly higher hallucination rates than
Speaker 2: the company's previous one model that came out in late
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. For example, when summarizing publicly available facts
Speaker 2: about people, three hallucinated thirty three percent of the time,
Speaker 2: while a four Mini did so forty eight percent of
Speaker 2: the time. In comparison, one had a hallucin rate of
Speaker 2: only sixteen percent.
Speaker 1: As if that was a good.
Speaker 2: Result, the problem isn't limited to open Ai. One popular
Speaker 2: leaderboard from the company Vectara that assesses hallucination rates indicates
Speaker 2: some reasoning models, including the deep Seek one model from
Speaker 2: developer deep Seek saw the double digit rises in hallucination
Speaker 2: rates compared with previous models from their developers. This type
Speaker 2: of model goes through multiple steps to demonstrate a line
Speaker 2: of reasoning before responding. Open ai says the reasoning process
Speaker 2: isn't to blame. Hallucinations are not inherently more prevalent in
Speaker 2: reasoning models, though we are actively working to reduce the
Speaker 2: high rates of hallucinations we saw in three and four Mini,
Speaker 2: says open AI spokesman. Will continue our research on hallucinations
Speaker 2: across all models to improve accuracy and reliability. They sent
Speaker 2: some potential applications for lms could be derailed by hallucination.
Speaker 2: A model that consistently states falsehoods and requires fact checking
Speaker 2: won't be a helpful research assistant. A paralegal bot that
Speaker 2: cites imaginary cases will get lawyers into deep trouble. A
Speaker 2: customer service agent that claims outdated policies are still active
Speaker 2: will create headaches for a company. However, AI companies initially
Speaker 2: claimed that this problem would clear up over time. Indeed,
Speaker 2: after they were first launched, models tended to hallucinate less
Speaker 2: with each update, but the high hallucination rates of recent
Speaker 2: versions are complicating that narrative whether or not reasoning is
Speaker 2: at fault. Vectara's leaderboard ranks models based on their factual
Speaker 2: consistency in summarizing documents they had given. This showed that
Speaker 2: hallucination rates are almost the same for reasoning versus non
Speaker 2: reasoning models, at least for systems from overen Ai and Google,
Speaker 2: says forrest Shengbao at Viktara. Google didn't provide additional comment
Speaker 2: for the leaderboard's purpose. The specific hallucination rate numbers are
Speaker 2: less important than overall ranking for each model, says Bao.
Speaker 2: But this ranking may not be the best way to
Speaker 2: compare models. For one thing, it conflates different types of hallucinations.
Speaker 2: Viktora team pointed out that although deep seek are one
Speaker 2: model hallucinated fourteen point three percent of the time, most
Speaker 2: of these were benign answers that are factually supported biological
Speaker 2: reasoning or world knowledge, but not actually present in the
Speaker 2: original text the bot was asked to summarize. Deep Seek
Speaker 2: didn't provide additional comment. Another problem with this kind of
Speaker 2: ranking is that testing based on text summarization says nothing
Speaker 2: about the rate.
Speaker 1: Of incorrect outputs.
Speaker 2: When lllms are used for other tasks, said Emily Ben
Speaker 2: at the University of Washington. She says the leaderboard results
Speaker 2: may not be the best way to judge this technology
Speaker 2: because lllms aren't designed specifically to summarize texts. These models
Speaker 2: work by repeatedly answering the question of what is a
Speaker 2: likely next word to formulate answers to prompts, and so
Speaker 2: they aren't processing information in the usual sense of trying
Speaker 2: to understand when information is available in a body of text,
Speaker 2: says Bender. But many tech companies are still frequently using
Speaker 2: the term hallucinations when describing output errors. Hallucination is a
Speaker 2: term that is doubly problematic, says Bender. On the one hand,
Speaker 2: it suggests that incorrect outputs are an aberration, perhaps one
Speaker 2: that can be mitigated, whereas the rest of the time
Speaker 2: the systems are grounded, reliable, and trustworthy. On the other hand,
Speaker 2: it functions to anthropomorphize the machines. Hallucination refers to perceiving
Speaker 2: something that is not there, and large language models do
Speaker 2: not anything of Vin Nariyayan at Princeton University says that
Speaker 2: the issue goes beyond hallucination. Models also sometimes make other mistakes,
Speaker 2: such as drawing upon unreliable sources or using outdated information,
Speaker 2: and simply throwing more training data or computing power at
Speaker 2: AI hasn't necessarily helped. The upshot is we may have
Speaker 2: to live with error prone AI narraya and said. He
Speaker 2: added that it may be best in some cases to
Speaker 2: only use such models for tasks when fact checking the
Speaker 2: AI answer would be still faster than doing the research yourself,
Speaker 2: But the best move may be to completely avoid relying
Speaker 2: on AI chatbots to provide factual information, says Bender.
Speaker 4: Much of that going. So we are listen to Astronomy
Speaker 4: Daily in the podcast, and.
Speaker 2: There it is another episode of Astronomy Daily. Thanks for
Speaker 2: spending that time with Hallet.
Speaker 3: If you enjoyed today's selection of.
Speaker 1: Stories, another nice little collection, don't.
Speaker 3: Forget you can get so much more every day by
Speaker 3: visiting the website Steve mentioned earlier in the episode.
Speaker 1: Well, thanks for the plug, Helly, Just put.
Speaker 3: Your email address in the space provided and you'll get
Speaker 3: all the news from orbit and beyond every day.
Speaker 2: Yes, that's right, everything about space, space science, astronomy, and
Speaker 2: a little bit associated with technology thrown in for fun,
Speaker 2: just like today.
Speaker 3: That was fun. Well I'm glad you think so, and
Speaker 3: That's really all there is today, so we will catch
Speaker 3: you all again next week.
Speaker 1: That's for sure.
Speaker 2: Back again for the Monday Show from the Australia Studio
Speaker 2: down Under with Hellie and Steve.
Speaker 1: Let's ask you the Cooper barus see you lad up?
Speaker 3: Bye, be a whole Steve
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