S03E195: Space Junk Jitters, Cosmic Googly Eye, and China's Sample Strategy

0:00 Speaker 1: Welcome to Astronomy Daily, your source for the latest news

0:03 Speaker 1: in space and astronomy. I'm your host, Anna, and today

0:06 Speaker 1: we've got a fascinating roundup of stories covering everything from

0:10 Speaker 1: orbital debris concerns to lunar missions in Mars exploration. We'll

0:14 Speaker 1: be exploring some groundbreaking developments that are shaping our understanding

0:17 Speaker 1: of the cosmos and humanity's ambitious ventures beyond Earth. Our

0:22 Speaker 1: first story today highlights a growing crisis above our heads.

0:26 Speaker 1: The recent breakup of the Intel Sat thirty three E

0:28 Speaker 1: satellite has added another troubling chapter to the mounting space

0:32 Speaker 1: debris problem. This broadband communications satellite, positioned about thirty five

0:38 Speaker 1: thousand kilometers above the Indian Ocean, suddenly lost power and

0:42 Speaker 1: broke into at least twenty pieces. According to US Space

0:45 Speaker 1: Forces confirmation. This incident adds to an already critical situation

0:50 Speaker 1: in low Earth orbit, where we currently have an estimated

0:53 Speaker 1: thirteen thousand metric tons of space junk circling our planet.

0:58 Speaker 1: It's a stark reminder of what scientists called the Kessler syndrome,

1:01 Speaker 1: a scenario first proposed by NASA scientists in nineteen seventy

1:05 Speaker 1: eight where the density of objects in orbit becomes so

1:08 Speaker 1: high that collisions create a cascade effect, generating more debris

1:12 Speaker 1: and more collisions. The numbers are staggering. The European Space

1:17 Speaker 1: Agency's Space Debris Office estimates there are about forty thousand,

1:21 Speaker 1: five hundred objects larger than ten centimeters in orbit, plus

1:25 Speaker 1: an additional one point one million objects between one and

1:28 Speaker 1: ten centimeters and a staggering one hundred thirty million pieces

1:32 Speaker 1: smaller than a centimeter. Back in two thousand and nine,

1:36 Speaker 1: Donald Kessler himself declared that the orbital situation had already

1:39 Speaker 1: reached the point of instability. While tracking technology is improving

1:44 Speaker 1: and various solutions are being developed, including missions like adres

1:47 Speaker 1: Jay and Clearsat one designed to actively remove debris, the

1:51 Speaker 1: challenge continues to grow. The Intelsat incident underscores the urgent

1:55 Speaker 1: need for better frameworks to prevent future collisions and address

1:58 Speaker 1: the removal of existing space debris. Without effective action, we

2:02 Speaker 1: risk compromising our ability to safely operate in Earth orbit,

2:06 Speaker 1: potentially impacting everything from communications to scientific research. Next up today,

2:12 Speaker 1: let's get a Mars update. In what can only be

2:14 Speaker 1: described as a fascinating astronomical spectacle, NASA's Perseverance rover has

2:19 Speaker 1: captured an eerie and remarkable sight from its vantage point

2:22 Speaker 1: in Mars's Jesio Crater. The rover witnessed Phobos, one of

2:27 Speaker 1: Mars's two moons, passing directly between the Sun and Mars,

2:32 Speaker 1: creating what looks remarkably like a cosmic googly eye in

2:35 Speaker 1: the Martian sky. This rare transit occurred on September thirtieth,

2:40 Speaker 1: during the rover's one two hundred eighty fifth Martian Day

2:44 Speaker 1: of exploration. Using its advanced MASTCAMZ camera system, Perseverance recorded

2:50 Speaker 1: the potato shaped moon as it partially blocked the Sun's disk,

2:54 Speaker 1: casting its shadow known as the ntumbra, across the red

2:58 Speaker 1: planet's surface. To put this celestial dance in perspective, Phobos

3:03 Speaker 1: is quite tiny compared to our own Moon, about one

3:06 Speaker 1: hundred fifty seven times smaller in fact, measuring only seventeen

3:10 Speaker 1: miles across at its widest point. Despite its small size,

3:13 Speaker 1: these transits are relatively common on Mars because Phobos orbits

3:17 Speaker 1: very close to the planet's surface and almost perfectly along

3:20 Speaker 1: its equator. The Moon completes an orbit every seven point

3:24 Speaker 1: six hours, which means these transit events typically last only

3:28 Speaker 1: about thirty seconds. What makes this observation particularly valuable is

3:33 Speaker 1: that it helps scientists refine their understanding of Phobos' orbital dynamics.

3:38 Speaker 1: By comparing images of these transits over time, researchers can

3:42 Speaker 1: track subtle changes in the moon's orbit. Current calculations suggest

3:47 Speaker 1: that Phobos is gradually moving closer to Mars and is

3:50 Speaker 1: predicted to collide with the planet in approximately fifty million years,

3:54 Speaker 1: a cosmic blink of an eye in astronomical terms. This

3:58 Speaker 1: isn't the first time NASA has captured such an event

4:00 Speaker 1: on Mars. Several rovers, including Curiosity and Opportunity, have witnessed

4:05 Speaker 1: similar transits over the years, but each observation adds another

4:08 Speaker 1: piece to our understanding of mars complex system of moons,

4:12 Speaker 1: and their ultimate fate. Speaking of things colliding with planets,

4:17 Speaker 1: for those who've long viewed comets as mysterious harbingers in

4:20 Speaker 1: our night sky, scientists are now developing an innovative approach

4:24 Speaker 1: that could revolutionize how we detect these celestial wanderers. By

4:28 Speaker 1: studying meteor showers, researchers believe they can predict the orbits

4:32 Speaker 1: of potentially hazardous long period comets years before they become

4:37 Speaker 1: visible to our telescopes. The connection between meteor showers and

4:40 Speaker 1: comets has been well established. Those spectacular shooting stars we

4:45 Speaker 1: see during events like the Perseods or Geminids are actually

4:48 Speaker 1: debris trails left behind by comets crossing Earth's orbit. But

4:52 Speaker 1: until now astronomers have typically worked forward from known comets

4:56 Speaker 1: to identify meteor showers. This new research flips that approach

5:00 Speaker 1: on its head. Using sophisticated computer simulations, scientists have demonstrated

5:06 Speaker 1: that by carefully analyzing meteor shower patterns, they could potentially

5:10 Speaker 1: trace them back to their parent comets, even when those

5:13 Speaker 1: comets are still far from the Inner Solar System. With

5:17 Speaker 1: the upcoming Reuben observatory's powerful sky scanning capabilities, this method

5:22 Speaker 1: could provide crucial early warnings of approaching comets. The team

5:27 Speaker 1: simulations covered comets with orbital periods ranging from two hundred

5:31 Speaker 1: to four thousand years. While not all comet orbits produce

5:35 Speaker 1: useful shower patterns, the researchers identified seventeen scenarios where meteor

5:40 Speaker 1: shower observations could help locate their parent comets months or

5:44 Speaker 1: even years before traditional detection methods would spot them. They've

5:48 Speaker 1: already put this theory to the test with real world data.

5:52 Speaker 1: Looking at the Sigma Hydrid meteor shower, which appears each December,

5:55 Speaker 1: researchers found they could have predicted the arrival of Comet

5:58 Speaker 1: Nishimura eight months before its actual discovery in twenty twenty three.

6:03 Speaker 1: This practical demonstration shows just how powerful this new detection

6:07 Speaker 1: method could be for planetary defense and our understanding of

6:11 Speaker 1: these ancient Solar System visitors. Next up, news from China's

6:15 Speaker 1: rapidly developing space program. A fascinating space race is heating

6:20 Speaker 1: up between China and the United States. But this time

6:22 Speaker 1: it's not about putting humans on another world. It's about

6:25 Speaker 1: who will be the first to bring pieces of Mars

6:27 Speaker 1: back to Earth. China has recently announced plans to accelerate

6:30 Speaker 1: their Mars sample return mission, aiming to launch CHAN three

6:33 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight, two years earlier than previously scheduled.

6:38 Speaker 1: This ambitious mission will require two separate launches using China's

6:41 Speaker 1: long March five carrier rockets. The plan involves not just

6:44 Speaker 1: landing on Mars, but also collecting samples, launching them back

6:48 Speaker 1: into Mars orbit, and then safely returning them to Earth,

6:51 Speaker 1: all within the same year. China's approach draws on their

6:54 Speaker 1: successful lunar sample return missions, including their recent Far side

6:58 Speaker 1: Moon sample collection. Meanwhile, NASA's Mars sample return mission, a

7:03 Speaker 1: joint effort with the European Space Agency, continues to face

7:06 Speaker 1: scrutiny and challenges. The project is currently under review, with

7:11 Speaker 1: teams working to find a way to bring samples back

7:13 Speaker 1: before twenty forty while keeping costs under eleven billion dollars.

7:18 Speaker 1: These samples would come from carefully selected cores currently being

7:22 Speaker 1: collected by the Perseverance Rover in Jaesaro Crater. The scientific

7:26 Speaker 1: community has mixed feelings about this competition. While many researchers

7:30 Speaker 1: welcome the prospect of getting Mars samples sooner rather than later,

7:34 Speaker 1: regardless of the source, others express concern about China potentially

7:38 Speaker 1: achieving this milestone first. Some experts are calling this a

7:42 Speaker 1: potential Sputnik moment that could have significant implications for future

7:46 Speaker 1: Mars exploration leadership. China's mission may opt for a simpler

7:51 Speaker 1: grab sample approach, collecting whatever material is within reach of

7:54 Speaker 1: their lander. While this might be less scientifically valuable than

7:58 Speaker 1: NASA's carefully selected samples, the political and technological achievement of

8:03 Speaker 1: being first to return material from Mars could mark a

8:06 Speaker 1: significant shift in space exploration prominence, and another country with

8:12 Speaker 1: aspirations of bringing samples back from a celestial neighbor, India's

8:17 Speaker 1: space program, is taking another bold step forward with their

8:20 Speaker 1: recently announced Chandrian four mission. The Indian Space Research Organization

8:24 Speaker 1: or ISRA, is targeting a twenty twenty eight launch for

8:27 Speaker 1: this ambitious sample return mission to the Moon's South Pole,

8:31 Speaker 1: aiming to collect around three kilograms of lunar material from

8:34 Speaker 1: this scientifically fascinating region. The mission's complexity is remarkable, involving

8:40 Speaker 1: five separate spacecraft modules and requiring two launches of India's

8:44 Speaker 1: most powerful rocket, the LVM III. The carefully choreographed plan

8:49 Speaker 1: calls for a lander and sample collecting ascender to be

8:52 Speaker 1: launched first, followed by a transfer module and re entry

8:55 Speaker 1: module that will orbit the Moon after collecting the samples.

9:00 Speaker 1: The ascender will launch from the lunar surface and perform

9:03 Speaker 1: a crucial rendezvous with the orbiting modules before the samples

9:06 Speaker 1: begin their journey back to Earth. To prepare for one

9:10 Speaker 1: of the mission's most challenging aspects, the orbital docking of spacecraft,

9:15 Speaker 1: ISRO will conduct a space docking experiment known as SPADEX,

9:19 Speaker 1: either later this year or in early twenty twenty five.

9:22 Speaker 1: They're also developing new technologies, including a robotic arm for

9:26 Speaker 1: surface sample collection and a drilling mechanism to gather material

9:29 Speaker 1: from beneath the lunar surface. What makes this mission particularly

9:33 Speaker 1: interesting is its target location near the lunar South Pole,

9:37 Speaker 1: an area rich in water ice that's becoming increasingly important

9:40 Speaker 1: for future space exploration. At an estimated cost of about

9:43 Speaker 1: two hundred fifty million dollars, Isero is demonstrating its ability

9:47 Speaker 1: to achieve ambitious goals while maintaining relatively modest budgets. The

9:52 Speaker 1: Chandrian formission isn't standing alone. It's part of India's broader

9:55 Speaker 1: lunar exploration strategy. Plans are already in motion for chandrie

10:00 Speaker 1: On five, a joint mission with Japan that will feature

10:02 Speaker 1: a much larger rover. These missions are stepping stones toward

10:06 Speaker 1: India's ultimate goal of landing astronauts on the Moon by

10:09 Speaker 1: twenty forty and establishing a lunar base before twenty fifty next.

10:14 Speaker 1: As if our skies weren't cluttered enough already, the European

10:17 Speaker 1: Commission has recently announced its pressing ahead with its ambitious

10:21 Speaker 1: plans for a sovereign broadband constellation, though the project is

10:25 Speaker 1: facing some significant hurdles. The initiative, known as iris TI

10:30 Speaker 1: Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite, aims to

10:35 Speaker 1: deploy more than two hundred and ninety satellites by twenty thirty,

10:39 Speaker 1: creating a robust communications network for both government and commercial use.

10:44 Speaker 1: Originally slated to begin global services by twenty twenty seven,

10:48 Speaker 1: with satellite deployment starting in twenty twenty five, the project

10:51 Speaker 1: has encountered delays and substantial cost increases. What began as

10:55 Speaker 1: a six point five billion euroventure has now reportedly ballooned

11:00 Speaker 1: to around ten billion euros. The initial funding structure, which

11:04 Speaker 1: called for sixty percent public funding with the remainder coming

11:07 Speaker 1: from private industry, is currently being reassessed. A consortium called

11:11 Speaker 1: Space Rice, led by major European satellite operators SES, Eutelsat

11:16 Speaker 1: and Hispasat, has submitted what's being called a best and

11:19 Speaker 1: final offer for the project, while the details remain under wraps.

11:24 Speaker 1: The European Commission is proceeding with a twelve year concession contract,

11:28 Speaker 1: though they've noted that additional funding arrangements may be necessary

11:31 Speaker 1: after twenty twenty seven. The project has also seen some

11:35 Speaker 1: interesting shifts in its industrial organization. European manufacturing giants Airbus,

11:40 Speaker 1: Defense and Space and Thale's Alenia Space, who were initially

11:44 Speaker 1: co leaders of the consortium, have now moved into subcontractor roles.

11:49 Speaker 1: This restructuring appears to be in response to price and

11:52 Speaker 1: performance pressures. Despite these challenges, the European Commission remains committed

11:56 Speaker 1: to ensuring the project benefits the broader European space industry.

12:00 Speaker 1: They're maintaining their requirement that at least thirty percent of

12:03 Speaker 1: larger contracts be subcontracted to smaller businesses, aiming to foster

12:08 Speaker 1: a more diverse and robust space economy across the region.

12:13 Speaker 1: And that brings us to the end of today's space

12:15 Speaker 1: and astronomy news. Thanks for tuning in to another episode

12:19 Speaker 1: of Astronomy Daily. I'm Anna and I hope you've enjoyed

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12:58 Speaker 1: tomorrow's exploration of the Casmos. Keep looking up. Day Star

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